Predictions: SUPER BOWL XLIV

After the Conference Championship games I am 6-4 in my predictions this post-season, hoping to finish 7-4 when all is said and done.  Last week I was fortunate to be correct on both of my predictions.  

Here we go, SUPER BOWL XLIV


AFC vs. NFC


New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts 
Sunday, February 7th - 3:25 p.m. PST, CBS

Common sense tells me to go with the Indianapolis Colts.  They have Peyton Manning after all, the MVP of the 2010 regular season, a slew of talented wide-receivers [Wayne, Garcon, Collie and Clark] and a speedy defense that could present Drew Brees and company with a difficult time scoring points.  My heart however, tells me otherwise.

The Saints story-book season is going to be tested on Sunday, and one key Colts injury just may swing the tide in the opposite direction.  The big question mark is whether the Colts DE, Dwight Freeney, will be able to play or not.  Freeney is nursing an ankle injury he sustained in the Conference Championship game against the Jets, and is questionable for the contest.  If Freeney is out, that is a big advantage for the Saints.  One of the premier pass rushers in the league, Freeney complements DE Robert Mathis on the other side of the line, who team up to cause havoc on opposing offenses.  With just Mathis rushing the quarterback, the Saints won't have to attribute as many men in protection and can focus more on the down-field attack.   

For the Saints they must give Drew Brees time in the pocket so he can exploit the Colts secondary.  If given the time, Brees can spread the ball around to any of his talented weapons in the passing attack [Colston, Mechum, Shockey and Bush out of the backfield] and keep this high octane offense in gear. Important as well is the balancing the passing attack with the running-by-committee system of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, especially considering the Colts featured a sub-par rushing defense that ranked #24 in the league this season.  Without Freeney, the Saints have the ability of limit the pass rush of the Colts.

For the Colts, they need to protect Manning against a Saints defense that has pounded opposing quarterbacks in the past two games [Warner and Favre].  Beyond that, putting the ball in Peyton Manning's hands should always keep them in the game, especially considering the Saints have given up a lot on defense this season; defensively the Saints are #25 in the league in total yards and #20 in total points, not a recipe for success against the game's best quarterback.   

This game has me absolutely torn.  I believe in Peyton Manning, and I know without a doubt that he is the best player on either side of the ball, and the most clutch.  Having said that, I just can't discredit the Saints momentum and ability to physically dominate the opposing quarterbacks in their path.  I see this being a very close game, with the Saints coming up with a miraculous win.
Saints win Super Bowl XLIV.