Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Tight Ends

Blog number four = Tight Ends.

According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:


[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

1. Vernon Davis (SF)- 174 points.
2. Dallas Clark (Ind)- 171 points.
3. Antonio Gates (SD)- 163 points.
4. Brent Celek (Phi)- 145 points.
5. Tony Gonzalez (Atl)- 122 points.
6. Visanthe Shiancoe (Min)- 122 points.
7. Kellem Winslow (TB)- 119 points.
8. Jason Witten (Dal)- 115 points.
9. Heath Miller (Pit)- 114 points.
10. Greg Olsen (Chi)- 109 points.



1. Vernon Davis (SF)
Davis came into his own this season, finding the end-zone 13 times, a league leading total for tight ends and tied for the league lead for receivers as well. Davis is a physical specimen (6'3, 250 lbs), and should repeat next season as the fantasy king for tight ends.
2009/2010 stats: 965 receiving yards, 78 receptions and 13 touchdowns.

2. Dallas Clark (Ind)
Targeted often by Manning, Clark was his favorite target over the middle and was a consistent threat all season long. Clark notched over 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career, his best games coming against Miami - 7 receptions for 183 receiving yards and a touchdown, and Houston - 14 receptions for 119 yards receiving.
2009/2010 stats: 1,106 receiving yards, 100 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

3. Antonio Gates (SD)
Gates notched over 1,000 yards receiving for the second time in his career, and has been a top-3 tight end consistently for the past 5 years. Next year will be no different.
2009/2010 stats: 1,157 receiving yards, 79 receptions and 8 touchdowns.

4. Brent Celek (Phi)
Celek had a breakout season in his 3rd year in the league, and should improve yet again next season. 2009/2010 stats: 971 receiving yards, 76 receptions and 8 touchdowns.

5. Kellen Winslow (TB)

Winslow had a decent season in his first year in Tampa, but I would like to see him improve his touchdown totals. Winslow has never had more than 5 touchdowns in a season in his career so far. 2009/2010 stats: 884 receiving yards, 77 receptions and 5 touchdowns.

6. Tony Gonzalez (Atl)
Gonzalez's numbers were slightly down this year, but that's expected with the change of location. Look for him to get back to the 1,000 yard mark next season.
2009/2010 stats: 867 receiving yards, 83 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

7. Jermichael Finley (GB)

Look for a breakout year from Finley in what will be his 3rd year in the league. He missed some time this year, and with another year under his belt, and in one of the leagues more prolific passing offenses, he should improve on his numbers from this year significantly.
2009/2010 stats: 676 receiving yards, 55 receptions and 5 touchdowns.

8. Jason Whitten (Dal)
Whitten reaches the 1,000 yard mark for the 2nd time in his career, but his touchdown total went down for the 3rd year in a row. To be an elite tight end, he needs to find the end-zone more. 2009/2010 stats: 1,030 receiving yards, 94 receptions and 2 touchdowns.

9. John Carlson (Sea)

Carlson was partly a casualty of the Seahawks dreadful season, but he did up his touchdown total from the year before (5). Look for him to have a better year yardage wise in 2010/2011.
574 receiving yards, 51 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

10. Visanthe Shiancoe (Min)
Shiancoe's fantasy value was inflated because of his touchdown total, but he seems to have built a good chemistry with Favre in the red-zone. If that continues, he should be a top-10 tight end next year. 2009/2010 stats: 566 receiving yards, 56 receptions and 11 touchdowns.


** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:

Offence
Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6
Interceptions = -1
Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns = 6
Reception Yards = 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns = 6
Return Touchdowns = 6
2-Point Conversions = 2
Fumbles Lost = -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6

Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5
Point After Attempt Made = 1

Defense/Special Teams
Sack = 1
Interception = 2
Fumble Recovery = 2
Touchdown = 6
Safety = 2
Block Kick = 2
Points Allowed 0 points = 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1
Points Allowed 35+ points = -4

2010/2011 Fantasy Football Draft Links

Here are some helpful links for draft tips for next year (2010/2011).


Side Note: You know what is aggravating??? I outscored EVERY OTHER TEAM in my fantasy league by over 100 points, but because it was a head-to-head scoring league I didn't win the league. 3rd place leaves a bitter taste in my mouth...

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Wide Receivers

Blog number three = Wide Receivers.

According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:


[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

1. Andrew Johnson (Hou)- 213 points.
2. Randy Moss (NE)- 204 points.
3. DeSean Jackson (Phi)- 200 points.
4. Miles Austin (Dal)- 197 points.
5. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)- 187 points.
6. Reggie Wayne (Ind)- 185 points.
7. Roddy White (Alt)- 181 points.
8. Sidney Rice (Min)- 177 points.
9. Brandon Marshall (Den)- 175 points.
10. Vincent Jackson (SD)- 171 points.
11. Steve Smith (NYG)- 164 points.
12. Wes Welker (NE)- 162 points.
13. Marques Colston (NO)- 158 points.
14. Chad Ochocinco (Cin)- 157 points.
15. Santonio Holmes (Pit)- 154 points.


1. Andre Johnson (Hou)
My reasoning behind taking Johnson ahead of Fitzgerald is partly due to the uncertainty with the quarterback situation in Arizona if Warner isn't under center, but also because Johnson is the only player to have over 1,500 yards receiving in each of the past 2 seasons, and he still has room for improvement with regard to his touchdown totals. His stats this year were ridiculous: 1,569 yards receiving, 101 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

2. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)
Larry is the definition of consistency and reliability. Johnson has averaged 1,310 yards receiving, 97 catches and 11 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons. The only issue that could arrise is if Warner retires.

3. DeSean Jackson (Phi)
Jackson was truly the best deep threat in the NFL this season, averaging 18.5 yards per catch and became a favorite target for McNabb in only his second year in the league. He has enormous upside, especially with the addition of his punt return numbers.
2009/2010 stats: 1,167 yards receiving, 63 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

4. Miles Austin (Dal)
I gave Austin the edge over Marshall here because of his consistency when thrown the ball late in the season, and because Marshall has shown some character issues that have caused him to miss some time. Austin, coming from relative obscurity, has become the favorite target of Romo and should thrive next season for the Cowboys. Imagine his numbers had he had more than 5 receptions in his first 4 games (totaling 81 yards).
2009/2010 stats: 1,320 receiving yards, 81 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

5. Brandon Marshall (Den)
Although Marshall's receiving yards have gone down the past three years 1,325 (07'/08'), 1,265 (08'/09') and 1,120 (09'/10'), and seems at time to have character issues, he still is a physically gifted receiver that can whip out record breaking games in a flash (see his 21 reception, 201 yard receiving and 2 touchdowns verses the Colts in week 14).

6. Reggie Wayne (Ind)
Perennial 1,000 yard receiver in a high octane offense (6 straight seasons, averaging 1,249 a season during that period); Wayne is a sure thing for 8-10 touchdowns a season.
2009/2010 stats: 1,264 receiving yards, 100 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

6. Randy Moss (NE)
Moss has averaged 1,255 yards receiving, 83 catches and 15 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons. Although age is a factor, with Brady throwing him the rock there is no reason he shouldn't be in the top-5 point total wise next season.

7. Sidney Rice
Had a breakout season in his 3rd year in the league, hooking up with Favre often in 2009/2010. Totaled 1,312 receiving yards (4th in the league), 83 receptions and 8 touchdowns, Rice still has tremendous upside. Hopefully for his sake, Favre is behind center again next season.

8. Vincent Jackson
Thriving in a power packed offense, Jackson has improved his production each year in the league. Averaging 17.2 yards per catch in 2009/2010, it won't be hard for him to improve his number yet again if targeted more. 2009/2010 stats: 1,167 receiving yards, 68 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

9. Calvin Johnson
Johnson took a step back this year after a stellar sophomore year campaign, but should bounce back in 2010/2011. Having three different quarterbacks in one year can have that affect on a wide out, not to mention him missing 2 full games to injury. Look for a year similar to 2009/2009.

10. Roddy White
White has quietly put together 3 solid seasons in a row in ATL. Although his average yards-per-catch were down this year (13.6), he notched a career high 11 touchdowns and had his third year in a row of at least 1,100 yards receiving.

11. Greg Jennings (GB)
Jennings is a home run threat for the NFL's best long-ball passer, Aaron Rodgers. He has averaged over 16 yards per catch each of the past two years, and should the Pack get better protection up front, Jennings could improve on his numbers next year. He does need to get more touches in the red-zone to take him to the next level fantasy wise.
2009/2010 stats: 1,113 receiving yards, 68 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

12. Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Has tremendous talent and upside, and should improve on his rookies numbers. Projection: 1,100-1,200 yards receiving, 60-80 receptions, 8-10 touchdowns.

13. Santonio Holmes (Pit)
2009/2010 saw Holmes have his first 1,000 yard receiving season as a pro, but his lack of touchdowns was a little disconcerting. If he improves that statistic, he will be a top fantasy wide out. 2009/2010 stats: 1,248 receiving yards, 79 receptions and 5 touchdowns.

14. Steve Smith (Car)
The Panthers complete meltdown at quarterback affected Smith, as he saw his first season in the last five to not record a 1,000 yard receiving year (only had 65 receptions). Still, despite that, he still scored 7 touchdowns and averaged 15.1 yards per catch. With a new quarterback, look for Smith to bounce back in 2010/2011.

15. Steve Smith (NYG)
Smith was Eli's go-to-guy this season, putting up great all around numbers. Expect more of the same next year, although the emergence of Nick's could spell a few less balls thrown his way. 2009/2010 stats: 1,220 receiving yards, 107 receptions and 7 touchdowns.


16-25


16. Anquan Bolden (Ari)
1,024 receiving yards, 84 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

17. Marques Colston (NO)
1,074 receiving yards, 70 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

18. Chad Ochocinco (Cin)
1,047 receiving yards, 72 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

19. Percy Harvin (Min)
790 receiving yards, 60 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

20. Michael Crabtree (San)
625 receiving yards, 48 receptions and 2 touchdowns.

21. Pierre Garcon (Ind)
765 receiving yards, 47 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

22. Mike Sims-Walker (Jax)
869 receiving yards, 63 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

23. Kenny Britt (Ten)
701 receiving yards, 42 receptions and 3 touchdowns.

24. Mike Wallace (Pit)
756 receiving yards, 39 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

25. Wes Welker (NE) - [I would slot Welker higher, but his late season injury throws his value into question]
1,348 receiving yards, 123 receptions and 4.


[Player to keep in mind for the 2010/2011 season at Wide Receiver is Dez Bryant, a will-be rookie next season]


** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:

Offence
Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6
Interceptions = -1
Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns = 6
Reception Yards = 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns = 6
Return Touchdowns = 6
2-Point Conversions = 2
Fumbles Lost = -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6

Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5
Point After Attempt Made = 1

Defense/Special Teams
Sack = 1
Interception = 2
Fumble Recovery = 2
Touchdown = 6
Safety = 2
Block Kick = 2
Points Allowed 0 points = 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1
Points Allowed 35+ points = -4

Monday, January 4, 2010

Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Running Backs

Blog number two = Running Backs.

According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:


[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

Running Backs
1. Chris Johnson (Ten)- 342 points.
2. Adrian Peterson (Min)- 277 points.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)-270 - points.
4. Ray Rice (Bal)- 246 points.
5. Thomas Jones (NYJ)- 230 points.
6. Frank Gore (San)- 226 points.
7. Ricky Williams (Mia)- 213 points.
8. Ryan Grant (GB)- 209 points.
9. Joseph Addai (Ind)- 199 points.
10. Stephen Jackson (Stl)- 193 points.


2010 Predictions

1. Chris Johnson
Johnson emerged this year as the best overall back in the league without question. Leading fantasy league's in total points for backs, as well the sole 2,000 yard rusher, he is sure to be a top 5 pick overall in virtually every league. He also had 500 yards receiving on the year, which may be an area he can improve on next year.

2. Adrian Peterson
Peterson, the defending rushing leader for the 2008/2009 season, was 5th in the league in rushing yards (1,383) this season, but first in rushing touchdowns (18). Peterson was handed the ball 49 fewer times this year, which saw his rushing yards decrease by 377 yards, but he also had 8 more touchdowns than the year before and caught more passes out of the backfield (he had over a 300 yard increase in receiving yards from 08'/09' to 09'/10'). His consistency should make him the #2 back taken.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew
Jones-Drew had a breakout season for the Jags, notching top-5 in the league in rushing attempts (312), yards (1,391), and touchdowns (15). This season was Jones-Drew's first being the featured back, and his versatility catching passes out of the backfield make him a duel threat.

4. Jamaal Charles
Averaging a ridiculous 5.9 yards a carry, Charles should get a full work load next season in KC. After receiving less than 10 carries in each of his first 6 weeks, his second half saw his production increase, averaging 20 carries in the last 8 weeks of the season. If you average out the last 8 games of 2008/2009 into an entire season, here is what you get: 1,924 yards rushing, 14 rushing touchdowns, 316 yards receiving, and 2 receiving touchdowns.

5. Ray Rice
Rice finished the year with a solid stat line, in just his second year in the league: 1,339 yards rushing, 7 rushing touchdowns, 702 yards receiving and 1 receiving touchdown. Averaging a superb 5.3 yards per carry, and hopefully given more goal-line touches next year (Willis McGahee had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2009/2010), Rice should improve on those numbers.

7. Michael Turner
During the past two seasons, Turner have averaged a touchdown per game, which is phenomenal. 2009/2010 saw him battling an ankle injury, which caused him to play in only 11 of the 16 games. He still averaged 4.9 yards a carry, and managed to score 10 touchdowns despite missing time. If he can stay healthy next season, there isn't any reason why he can't repeat his numbers from the 2008/2009 season (1,699 yards rushing, 17 touchdowns).

8. Ryan Grant
Grant made 2009/2010 his best statistical season yet, totaling 1,253 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns. Playing in Green Bay, with their formidable passing attack, should give Grant a good opportunity to get some touches in space next season.

9. Frank Gore
Gore has averaged 1,112 rushing yards a season over his career, which puts him in the 'steady, but not league-leading' category. He saw the endzone more in 2009/2010 than previously in his career (10 rushing touchdowns), but the 49ers offense moving away from the run towards the pass is a little worrying.

10. Cedric Bensen (Cin)
After missing three full games, Bensen has put up some impressive numbers: 1,251 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 6 rushing touchdowns. Bensen averages 109 yards-per-game in Cincinnati wins, and should see the ball more next season. When given 20 or more touches in a game, Cincinnati was 6-1 in 2009/2010.


11 - 20 [statistics are from 2009/2010 season]

11. Rashard Mendenhall (Pit)
1,108 rushing, 4.6 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

12. DeAngelo Williams (Car)
1,117 rushing, 5.2 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

13. Beanie Wells (Ari)

793 rushing, 4.5 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

14. Ronnie Brown (Mia)
648 rushing, 4.4 ypc, 8 rushing td's.

15. Jonathan Stuart (Car)
1,133 rushing, 5.1 ypc, 10 rushing td's.

16. Thomas Jones (NYJ)
1,402 rushing, 4.2 ypc, 14 rushing td's.

17. Pierre Thomas (NO)
793 rushing, 5.4 ypc, 6 rushing td's.

18. Jerome Harrison (Cle)
862 rushing, 4.5 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

19. Joseph Addai (Ind)
828 rushing, 3.8 ypc, 10 rushing td's.

20
. Matt Forte (Chi)
929 rushing, 3.6 ypc, 4 rushing td's.



[Two players to keep in mind for the 2010/2011 season at Running Back are will-be rookies C.J. Spiller and
Jahvid Best]




** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:


Offence

Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6

Interceptions = -1

Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point

Rushing Touchdowns = 6

Reception Yards = 10 yards per point

Reception Touchdowns = 6

Return Touchdowns = 6

2-Point Conversions = 2

Fumbles Lost = -2

Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6


Kickers

Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3

Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3

Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4

Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5

Point After Attempt Made = 1


Defense/Special Teams

Sack = 1
Interception = 2

Fumble Recovery = 2

Touchdown = 6

Safety = 2

Block Kick = 2

Points Allowed 0 points = 10

Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7

Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4

Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0

Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1

Points Allowed 35+ points = -4

Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Quarterbacks

The 2009/2010 NFL regular season has come to a conclusion, which means one thing... It's time to start assessing next year's Fantasy Football Draft. Many people will retort that one day after the regular season has ended is far too soon to start analyzing for next year, but I disagree. The season is never fully over for the obsessed fantasy football addict, for there is no off-season if a championship is what you seek.
Now, we will start with the signal callers - the elite quarterbacks to be gracing our drafts next season.
According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:

[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

Quarterbacks**
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)- 409 points.
2. Drew Brees (NO)- 371 points.
3. Peyton Manning (Ind)- 360 points.
4. Brett Favre (Min)- 355 points.
5. Matt Schaub (Hou)- 353 points.
7. Tony Romo (Dal)- 334 points.
7. Phillip Rivers (SD)- 334 points.
9. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)- 331 points.
10. Jay Cutler (Chi)- 307 points.


2010 Projections


1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Rodgers was the leader in total points, and was remarkably consistent despite being sacked a league leading 50 times (tied with Ben Roethlisberger). He was in the top-5 in passer rating (103%), passing yards (4,434) and passing touchdowns (30). He also had 11 multi-touchdown games this season. Given more protection on the offensive line, Rodgers has the potential to put up better numbers next year.

2. Drew Brees (NO)

Brees trailed only Aaron Rodgers in total points, but had arguably the best season statically for a passer based on his games played (15) to Rodgers (16). He also had the highest passer rating (109.6%), and has a tremendous amount of weapons coming back next year in New Orleans (Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, etc.). His offenses have finished 1st in both total yards and points each of the past two seasons.

3. Peyton Manning (Ind)
Manning was in the top-5 this year in completions (393), passing percentage (68%), passing yards (4,500), yards-per-game (281) and touchdowns (33). Most valuable to fantasy owners because of his consistency; Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards nine seasons this decade (the 2005-2006 being the exception), has averaged 30 touchdown passes over the past five seasons, and has averaged 16 games played in every year of his career.

4. Phillip Rivers (SD)
Rivers finished the year 3rd in total passer rating (104%), and a league best for qb's with 8.8 yards per attempt. He also reach 4,000 yards and over 65% completions for the 2nd straight year. Rivers has many weapons in San Diego (Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles and LT) and there is no reason why he cannot improve upon his already stellar numbers next season.

5. Matt Schaub (Hou) ↑

Schaub made drastic improvements from his fifth to sixth year in the league. Starting in all 16 games this season for the first time since joining the Texans, he led the league in completions (396), passing yards (4,770) and was 5th in the league in touchdowns (29). Schaub has also built a strong relationship with Andre Johnson who had 1,500 yards receiving for the second straight year. He also had 8 300-yard games and 9 multi-touchdown games.

6. Tony Romo (Dal)
Romo had his best statistical year this season, totaling 4,483 yards while notching only 9 int's, the first time in his career he has stayed below the double-digits mark. If Miles Austin comes back to Dallas next year, and Roy Williams can get his act together, Romo could be a solid mid-level pick.

7. Tom Brady (Bos)
After missing the 2008/2009 season, it took Brady a few weeks to get his form back, but this season saw more of the same from the perennial pro bowler. He threw for 4,398 yards and had over 65% passing for the second time in his career.
Important note: Wes Welker's return in 2010/2011 is vital to Brady's success.

8. Brett Favre (Min)
If he's still playing, I would take him over Big Ben or the immature Cutler any day. Still putting up unbelievable statistics at 40 years old - 4,202 yards passing, 107% passer rating, 33 touchdown passes and completing passes at 68%.

9. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
Set a career high in completion percentage (66.6%) and passing yards (4,328) despite injuries all year. His 8.6 yards per attempt are also impressive.

10. Jay Cutler - (Chi)
Took a definite step back this year moving from Denver to Chicago, but has enormous potential. One of the best arms in the game, just needs to be more consistent.


** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:

Offence

Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6
Interceptions = -1
Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns = 6
Reception Yards = 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns = 6
Return Touchdowns = 6
2-Point Conversions = 2
Fumbles Lost = -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6


Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5
Point After Attempt Made = 1

Defense/Special Teams
Sack = 1
Interception = 2
Fumble Recovery = 2
Touchdown = 6
Safety = 2
Block Kick = 2
Points Allowed 0 points = 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1
Points Allowed 35+ points = -4