Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Quarterbacks

The 2009/2010 NFL regular season has come to a conclusion, which means one thing... It's time to start assessing next year's Fantasy Football Draft. Many people will retort that one day after the regular season has ended is far too soon to start analyzing for next year, but I disagree. The season is never fully over for the obsessed fantasy football addict, for there is no off-season if a championship is what you seek.
Now, we will start with the signal callers - the elite quarterbacks to be gracing our drafts next season.
According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:

[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

Quarterbacks**
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)- 409 points.
2. Drew Brees (NO)- 371 points.
3. Peyton Manning (Ind)- 360 points.
4. Brett Favre (Min)- 355 points.
5. Matt Schaub (Hou)- 353 points.
7. Tony Romo (Dal)- 334 points.
7. Phillip Rivers (SD)- 334 points.
9. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)- 331 points.
10. Jay Cutler (Chi)- 307 points.


2010 Projections

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Rodgers was the leader in total points, and was remarkably consistent despite being sacked a league leading 50 times (tied with Ben Roethlisberger). He was in the top-5 in passer rating (103%), passing yards (4,434) and passing touchdowns (30). He also had 11 multi-touchdown games this season. Given more protection on the offensive line, Rodgers has the potential to put up better numbers next year.

2. Drew Brees (NO)
Brees trailed only Aaron Rodgers in total points, but had arguably the best season statically for a passer based on his games played (15) to Rodgers (16). He also had the highest passer rating (109.6%), and has a tremendous amount of weapons coming back next year in New Orleans (Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, etc.). His offenses have finished 1st in both total yards and points each of the past two seasons.

3. Peyton Manning (Ind)
Manning was in the top-5 this year in completions (393), passing percentage (68%), passing yards (4,500), yards-per-game (281) and touchdowns (33). Most valuable to fantasy owners because of his consistency; Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards nine seasons this decade (the 2005-2006 being the exception), has averaged 30 touchdown passes over the past five seasons, and has averaged 16 games played in every year of his career.

4. Phillip Rivers (SD) ↑
Rivers finished the year 3rd in total passer rating (104%), and a league best for qb's with 8.8 yards per attempt. He also reach 4,000 yards and over 65% completions for the 2nd straight year. Rivers has many weapons in San Diego (Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles and LT) and there is no reason why he cannot improve upon his already stellar numbers next season.

5. Matt Schaub (Hou) ↑
Schaub made drastic improvements from his fifth to sixth year in the league. Starting in all 16 games this season for the first time since joining the Texans, he led the league in completions (396), passing yards (4,770) and was 5th in the league in touchdowns (29). Schaub has also built a strong relationship with Andre Johnson who had 1,500 yards receiving for the second straight year. He also had 8 300-yard games and 9 multi-touchdown games.

6. Tony Romo (Dal) ↑
Romo had his best statistical year this season, totaling 4,483 yards while notching only 9 int's, the first time in his career he has stayed below the double-digits mark. If Miles Austin comes back to Dallas next year, and Roy Williams can get his act together, Romo could be a solid mid-level pick.

7. Tom Brady (Bos)
After missing the 2008/2009 season, it took Brady a few weeks to get his form back, but this season saw more of the same from the perennial pro bowler. He threw for 4,398 yards and had over 65% passing for the second time in his career.
Important note: Wes Welker's return in 2010/2011 is vital to Brady's success.

8. Brett Favre (Min)
If he's still playing, I would take him over Big Ben or the immature Cutler any day. Still putting up unbelievable statistics at 40 years old - 4,202 yards passing, 107% passer rating, 33 touchdown passes and completing passes at 68%.

9. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
Set a career high in completion percentage (66.6%) and passing yards (4,328) despite injuries all year. His 8.6 yards per attempt are also impressive.

10. Jay Cutler - (Chi)
Took a definite step back this year moving from Denver to Chicago, but has enormous potential. One of the best arms in the game, just needs to be more consistent.


** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:

Offence
Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6
Interceptions = -1
Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns = 6
Reception Yards = 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns = 6
Return Touchdowns = 6
2-Point Conversions = 2
Fumbles Lost = -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6

Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5
Point After Attempt Made = 1

Defense/Special Teams
Sack = 1
Interception = 2
Fumble Recovery = 2
Touchdown = 6
Safety = 2
Block Kick = 2
Points Allowed 0 points = 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1
Points Allowed 35+ points = -4