Monday, January 4, 2010

Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Running Backs

Blog number two = Running Backs.

According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:


[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

Running Backs
1. Chris Johnson (Ten)- 342 points.
2. Adrian Peterson (Min)- 277 points.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)-270 - points.
4. Ray Rice (Bal)- 246 points.
5. Thomas Jones (NYJ)- 230 points.
6. Frank Gore (San)- 226 points.
7. Ricky Williams (Mia)- 213 points.
8. Ryan Grant (GB)- 209 points.
9. Joseph Addai (Ind)- 199 points.
10. Stephen Jackson (Stl)- 193 points.


2010 Predictions

1. Chris Johnson
Johnson emerged this year as the best overall back in the league without question. Leading fantasy league's in total points for backs, as well the sole 2,000 yard rusher, he is sure to be a top 5 pick overall in virtually every league. He also had 500 yards receiving on the year, which may be an area he can improve on next year.

2. Adrian Peterson
Peterson, the defending rushing leader for the 2008/2009 season, was 5th in the league in rushing yards (1,383) this season, but first in rushing touchdowns (18). Peterson was handed the ball 49 fewer times this year, which saw his rushing yards decrease by 377 yards, but he also had 8 more touchdowns than the year before and caught more passes out of the backfield (he had over a 300 yard increase in receiving yards from 08'/09' to 09'/10'). His consistency should make him the #2 back taken.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew
Jones-Drew had a breakout season for the Jags, notching top-5 in the league in rushing attempts (312), yards (1,391), and touchdowns (15). This season was Jones-Drew's first being the featured back, and his versatility catching passes out of the backfield make him a duel threat.

4. Jamaal Charles
Averaging a ridiculous 5.9 yards a carry, Charles should get a full work load next season in KC. After receiving less than 10 carries in each of his first 6 weeks, his second half saw his production increase, averaging 20 carries in the last 8 weeks of the season. If you average out the last 8 games of 2008/2009 into an entire season, here is what you get: 1,924 yards rushing, 14 rushing touchdowns, 316 yards receiving, and 2 receiving touchdowns.

5. Ray Rice
Rice finished the year with a solid stat line, in just his second year in the league: 1,339 yards rushing, 7 rushing touchdowns, 702 yards receiving and 1 receiving touchdown. Averaging a superb 5.3 yards per carry, and hopefully given more goal-line touches next year (Willis McGahee had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2009/2010), Rice should improve on those numbers.

7. Michael Turner
During the past two seasons, Turner have averaged a touchdown per game, which is phenomenal. 2009/2010 saw him battling an ankle injury, which caused him to play in only 11 of the 16 games. He still averaged 4.9 yards a carry, and managed to score 10 touchdowns despite missing time. If he can stay healthy next season, there isn't any reason why he can't repeat his numbers from the 2008/2009 season (1,699 yards rushing, 17 touchdowns).

8. Ryan Grant
Grant made 2009/2010 his best statistical season yet, totaling 1,253 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns. Playing in Green Bay, with their formidable passing attack, should give Grant a good opportunity to get some touches in space next season.

9. Frank Gore
Gore has averaged 1,112 rushing yards a season over his career, which puts him in the 'steady, but not league-leading' category. He saw the endzone more in 2009/2010 than previously in his career (10 rushing touchdowns), but the 49ers offense moving away from the run towards the pass is a little worrying.

10. Cedric Bensen (Cin)
After missing three full games, Bensen has put up some impressive numbers: 1,251 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 6 rushing touchdowns. Bensen averages 109 yards-per-game in Cincinnati wins, and should see the ball more next season. When given 20 or more touches in a game, Cincinnati was 6-1 in 2009/2010.


11 - 20 [statistics are from 2009/2010 season]

11. Rashard Mendenhall (Pit)
1,108 rushing, 4.6 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

12. DeAngelo Williams (Car)
1,117 rushing, 5.2 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

13. Beanie Wells (Ari)

793 rushing, 4.5 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

14. Ronnie Brown (Mia)
648 rushing, 4.4 ypc, 8 rushing td's.

15. Jonathan Stuart (Car)
1,133 rushing, 5.1 ypc, 10 rushing td's.

16. Thomas Jones (NYJ)
1,402 rushing, 4.2 ypc, 14 rushing td's.

17. Pierre Thomas (NO)
793 rushing, 5.4 ypc, 6 rushing td's.

18. Jerome Harrison (Cle)
862 rushing, 4.5 ypc, 7 rushing td's.

19. Joseph Addai (Ind)
828 rushing, 3.8 ypc, 10 rushing td's.

20
. Matt Forte (Chi)
929 rushing, 3.6 ypc, 4 rushing td's.



[Two players to keep in mind for the 2010/2011 season at Running Back are will-be rookies C.J. Spiller and
Jahvid Best]




** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:


Offence

Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6

Interceptions = -1

Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point

Rushing Touchdowns = 6

Reception Yards = 10 yards per point

Reception Touchdowns = 6

Return Touchdowns = 6

2-Point Conversions = 2

Fumbles Lost = -2

Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6


Kickers

Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3

Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3

Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4

Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5

Point After Attempt Made = 1


Defense/Special Teams

Sack = 1
Interception = 2

Fumble Recovery = 2

Touchdown = 6

Safety = 2

Block Kick = 2

Points Allowed 0 points = 10

Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7

Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4

Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0

Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1

Points Allowed 35+ points = -4

No comments:

Post a Comment