Fantasy Football Season: Predictions - Wide Receivers

Blog number three = Wide Receivers.

According to the Yahoo! Sports fantasy league to which I subscribed, your point leaders for 2009/2010 are as follows:

[there may be point differentials from league to league based on how they statistically score points, but this can be used as a broad baseline]

1. Andrew Johnson (Hou)- 213 points.
2. Randy Moss (NE)- 204 points.
3. DeSean Jackson (Phi)- 200 points.
4. Miles Austin (Dal)- 197 points.
5. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)- 187 points.
6. Reggie Wayne (Ind)- 185 points.
7. Roddy White (Alt)- 181 points.
8. Sidney Rice (Min)- 177 points.
9. Brandon Marshall (Den)- 175 points.
10. Vincent Jackson (SD)- 171 points.
11. Steve Smith (NYG)- 164 points.
12. Wes Welker (NE)- 162 points.
13. Marques Colston (NO)- 158 points.
14. Chad Ochocinco (Cin)- 157 points.
15. Santonio Holmes (Pit)- 154 points.


1. Andre Johnson (Hou)
My reasoning behind taking Johnson ahead of Fitzgerald is partly due to the uncertainty with the quarterback situation in Arizona if Warner isn't under center, but also because Johnson is the only player to have over 1,500 yards receiving in each of the past 2 seasons, and he still has room for improvement with regard to his touchdown totals. His stats this year were ridiculous: 1,569 yards receiving, 101 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

2. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)
Larry is the definition of consistency and reliability. Johnson has averaged 1,310 yards receiving, 97 catches and 11 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons. The only issue that could arrise is if Warner retires.

3. DeSean Jackson (Phi) ↑
Jackson was truly the best deep threat in the NFL this season, averaging 18.5 yards per catch and became a favorite target for McNabb in only his second year in the league. He has enormous upside, especially with the addition of his punt return numbers.
2009/2010 stats: 1,167 yards receiving, 63 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

4. Miles Austin (Dal) ↑
I gave Austin the edge over Marshall here because of his consistency when thrown the ball late in the season, and because Marshall has shown some character issues that have caused him to miss some time. Austin, coming from relative obscurity, has become the favorite target of Romo and should thrive next season for the Cowboys. Imagine his numbers had he had more than 5 receptions in his first 4 games (totaling 81 yards).
2009/2010 stats: 1,320 receiving yards, 81 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

5. Brandon Marshall (Den)
Although Marshall's receiving yards have gone down the past three years 1,325 (07'/08'), 1,265 (08'/09') and 1,120 (09'/10'), and seems at time to have character issues, he still is a physically gifted receiver that can whip out record breaking games in a flash (see his 21 reception, 201 yard receiving and 2 touchdowns verses the Colts in week 14).

6. Reggie Wayne (Ind)
Perennial 1,000 yard receiver in a high octane offense (6 straight seasons, averaging 1,249 a season during that period); Wayne is a sure thing for 8-10 touchdowns a season.
2009/2010 stats: 1,264 receiving yards, 100 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

6. Randy Moss (NE)
Moss has averaged 1,255 yards receiving, 83 catches and 15 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons. Although age is a factor, with Brady throwing him the rock there is no reason he shouldn't be in the top-5 point total wise next season.

7. Sidney Rice ↑
Had a breakout season in his 3rd year in the league, hooking up with Favre often in 2009/2010. Totaled 1,312 receiving yards (4th in the league), 83 receptions and 8 touchdowns, Rice still has tremendous upside. Hopefully for his sake, Favre is behind center again next season.

8. Vincent Jackson ↑
Thriving in a power packed offense, Jackson has improved his production each year in the league. Averaging 17.2 yards per catch in 2009/2010, it won't be hard for him to improve his number yet again if targeted more. 2009/2010 stats: 1,167 receiving yards, 68 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

9. Calvin Johnson
Johnson took a step back this year after a stellar sophomore year campaign, but should bounce back in 2010/2011. Having three different quarterbacks in one year can have that affect on a wide out, not to mention him missing 2 full games to injury. Look for a year similar to 2009/2009.

10. Roddy White
White has quietly put together 3 solid seasons in a row in ATL. Although his average yards-per-catch were down this year (13.6), he notched a career high 11 touchdowns and had his third year in a row of at least 1,100 yards receiving.

11. Greg Jennings (GB)
Jennings is a home run threat for the NFL's best long-ball passer, Aaron Rodgers. He has averaged over 16 yards per catch each of the past two years, and should the Pack get better protection up front, Jennings could improve on his numbers next year. He does need to get more touches in the red-zone to take him to the next level fantasy wise.
2009/2010 stats: 1,113 receiving yards, 68 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

12. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) ↑
Has tremendous talent and upside, and should improve on his rookies numbers. Projection: 1,100-1,200 yards receiving, 60-80 receptions, 8-10 touchdowns.

13. Santonio Holmes (Pit) ↑
2009/2010 saw Holmes have his first 1,000 yard receiving season as a pro, but his lack of touchdowns was a little disconcerting. If he improves that statistic, he will be a top fantasy wide out. 2009/2010 stats: 1,248 receiving yards, 79 receptions and 5 touchdowns.

14. Steve Smith (Car)
The Panthers complete meltdown at quarterback affected Smith, as he saw his first season in the last five to not record a 1,000 yard receiving year (only had 65 receptions). Still, despite that, he still scored 7 touchdowns and averaged 15.1 yards per catch. With a new quarterback, look for Smith to bounce back in 2010/2011.

15. Steve Smith (NYG) ↑
Smith was Eli's go-to-guy this season, putting up great all around numbers. Expect more of the same next year, although the emergence of Nick's could spell a few less balls thrown his way. 2009/2010 stats: 1,220 receiving yards, 107 receptions and 7 touchdowns.


16-25

16. Anquan Bolden (Ari)
1,024 receiving yards, 84 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

17. Marques Colston (NO)
1,074 receiving yards, 70 receptions and 9 touchdowns.

18. Chad Ochocinco (Cin)
1,047 receiving yards, 72 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

19. Percy Harvin (Min) ↑
790 receiving yards, 60 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

20. Michael Crabtree (San) ↑
625 receiving yards, 48 receptions and 2 touchdowns.

21. Pierre Garcon (Ind) ↑
765 receiving yards, 47 receptions and 4 touchdowns.

22. Mike Sims-Walker (Jax) ↑
869 receiving yards, 63 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

23. Kenny Britt (Ten) ↑
701 receiving yards, 42 receptions and 3 touchdowns.

24. Mike Wallace (Pit) ↑
756 receiving yards, 39 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

25. Wes Welker (NE) - [I would slot Welker higher, but his late season injury throws his value into question]
1,348 receiving yards, 123 receptions and 4.


[Player to keep in mind for the 2010/2011 season at Wide Receiver is Dez Bryant, a will-be rookie next season]


** Scoring in my Yahoo! Fantasy Football League was as follows:

Offence
Passing Yards = 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns = 6
Interceptions = -1
Rushing Yards = 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns = 6
Reception Yards = 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns = 6
Return Touchdowns = 6
2-Point Conversions = 2
Fumbles Lost = -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD = 6

Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards = 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards = 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards = 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards = 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards = 5
Point After Attempt Made = 1

Defense/Special Teams
Sack = 1
Interception = 2
Fumble Recovery = 2
Touchdown = 6
Safety = 2
Block Kick = 2
Points Allowed 0 points = 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points = 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points = 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points = 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points = 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points = -1
Points Allowed 35+ points = -4