Divisional Playoffs
AFC
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, January 16th - Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), 5:15 p.m. PST, CBS
Though the Ravens defense is one of the more physical and imposing in the league, especially on opponents running game, they have to prove they can stop Peyton Manning through the air this Saturday in Indianapolis. Manning has thrown 17 TDs to just 7 INTs in his past 9 games against the Ravens, and with the emergence of Pierre Garçon this year, Manning now has 4 legitimate weapons in the passing game (Wayne, Clark, Garçon and Addai out of the backfield).
The test for the Colts will be whether they can effectively run that ball against the tough Ravens D. The Ravens on the other hand will have to rely on their run game, resting on the shoulders of Ray Rice, interspersed periodically with runs from Willis McGahee. They will need a better performance from Joe Flacco than his lackluster 4-10, 34 yd and 1 INT against the Patriots last week.
Experience is worth exponentially more in the playoffs, especially with regard to your quarterback play, and in the end the play of the league's MVP will find a way to propel the Colts to victory.
Colts win at home.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Sunday, January 17th - 1:40 p.m. PST, CBS
This should indeed be a great match-up on both sides of the ball, but especially the battle between the Chargers offense and the Jets defense. The Chargers will be taking their dynamic passing attack against the Jets and their #1 pass defense in the league, while the Jets and their #1 rushing offense in the league will be battling a Charger defense that ranked #20 in rushing defense (giving up 117 rushing yards per game).
The key for the Jets will be controlling the time-of-possession with their run game and keeping the ball out of the hands of Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense. The Jets have not given up more than 15 points in over 7 weeks.
The key for the Chargers is to loosen up the Jets defense with some down field passes, which will then open up the middle of the field to Antonio Gates to exploit. Also look for LT and Sproles out of the backfield to catch some intermediate (check-down) passes, as their run game has significantly gone down this year. In the end the high flying Charger offense and Phillip Rivers knack for 4th quarter heroics will be too much for the Jets.
Chargers win at home.
NFC
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Saturday, January 16th - 1:30 p.m. PST, FOX
The key for the upcoming match-up between the Cardinals and Saints will be which team handles their various situation better. The Cardinals, coming off of an overtime shootout of truly epic proportions this past weekend, must avoid a emotional and physical letdown after playing in the highest combined scoring playoff game in history. How will that win affect the Cardinals energy and sharpness this weekend? The Saints will be well rested after having and entire week off, given by head coach Sean Payton in the first week off due to their first round bye, and should be primed for a shootout themselves. How will this layoff affect their cohesiveness, especially after resting many of their starters the last weeks of the regular season?
I see this game being a lower scoring affair than most expect it to be, especially with the Saints time off and the Cardinals coming off an emotional and hard fought victory. Both teams have prolific passing offenses, but the key to this game will be which team can intersperse the run effectively amongst the down-field attack. I see Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush having a bigger impact than Beanie Wells and Time Hightower.
In the end, this game could come down to special teams play and the kicking game. Would you want the game winning or game tying kick resting on the shoulders of Neil Rackers? Me either.
Saints win at home.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 17th - 10:00 a.m. PST, FOX
This season Dallas has not allowed a 100-yard rusher and Minnesota hasn't lost at home - I am positive one of those two trends will be broken this Sunday.
The key for the Cowboys is to limit the run game (Adrian Peterson), and get pressure on the quarterback (Bret Favre), both things the Cowboys have excelled at of late. When pressured, Favre has the tendency to employ his gunslinger mentality even more than usual, which usually leads to turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball, Romo needs to find Miles Austin and exploit the Minnesota secondary, loosening up the run for the tandem of Jones, Barber and Choice.
For the Vikings, the key to the game is that they have to control the line of scrimmage and play effective pass defense. The Viking D has possibly one of the toughest tasks this Sunday, stopping the red hot Cowboy offense. Equally as important, being effective offensively against a Cowboy defense that has allowed just 31 points in their past four games (all wins).
As Trent Dilfer said, "I'm drinking the Cowboy koolaid." Call it a gut feeling, but I see the Boys in the NFC Championship. In the 1990's Bret Favre lost all three of his playoff games against the Cowboys, being outscored by an average of 16 points a game. I see history repeating itself on Sunday. Minnesota will have trouble containing Miles Austin in the secondary, along with the committee of running backs the Cowboys will employ.
Cowboys win on the road.
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